Model 538 Says 2024 Is ‘Tipping Point’ in Pennsylvania
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Model 538 Says 2024 Is ‘Tipping Point’ in Pennsylvania

The website formally known as “Five Thirty Eight” has released its official 2024 presidential election prediction model and credits Pennsylvania as a “tipping point” at this stage of the campaign.

US opinion polling, politics, economics and sports blog analysis website 538 hopes to leverage general election polling averages by asking not only what the best guess is as to who is leading in the presidential race today, but also what range of outcomes are possible are before the actual election in November.

From this morning President Joe Biden As a former president, he is projected to win the Keystone State 57 out of 100 in his series Donald Trump wins 43 times in the 2024 presidential election simulation.

β€œIn our forecast, the 2024 presidential election begins with a draw. While former President Donald Trump has the lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a slight move β€” or polls that are a little too favorable for Republicans β€” could result in President Joe Biden’s re-election.”

The 538 forecast for all 50 states shows that Biden will win 53 times out of 100 simulated series, and Trump will win 47 times. A third-party candidate wins less than once in 100.

Among the so-called swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin are now considered better for Biden than Pennsylvania. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina are seen as better for Trump recently.

538 defines a state’s tipping point chance as the probability that it will provide the Electoral College winner with the 270th electoral vote, while its electoral strength index (VPI) is a relative measure of the probability that an individual voter in that state will determine the outcome of the vote. elections.

As for the Commonwealth, Pennsylvania is at a tipping point at 13.6%, well ahead of runner-up North Carolina (10.0%). And the state’s VPI is in the triple digits at 100%, more than 20 points higher than Florida and Texas.

The 538 is brand new and the methodology can be found here.